Predicted peritoneal recurrence risk
12 months
—
cumulative incidence
24 months
—
cumulative incidence
36 months
—
cumulative incidence
Predicted cumulative incidence of peritoneal recurrence
Patient curve (solid) vs. study cohort tertiles (dashed)
Risk summary table
| Timepoint | Predicted CIF | Cohort risk tier (at 24 m) |
|---|---|---|
| 12 months | — | — |
| 24 months | — | |
| 36 months | — |
Note: Lauren histotype was entered as Unknown. The prediction assumes Intestinal type (reference category).
Clinical disclaimer: This calculator provides predicted cumulative incidence of peritoneal recurrence based on a competing-risks regression model (Fine-Gray) derived from a multicentre cohort of patients treated with perioperative FLOT chemotherapy and curative-intent surgery for gastro-oesophageal cancer. Predictions are probabilistic estimates and should be interpreted alongside clinical judgement. This tool does not constitute a recommendation for or against any specific treatment. The model has not been externally validated.
Model performance metrics
| Model | Optimism-corrected AUC at 24 m (95% CI) | n (complete case) |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline (preoperative) | 0.738 (0.723–0.778) | 2,238 |
| Full (post-surgical) | 0.802 (0.791–0.835) | 2,238 |
Internal validation: 1,000-bootstrap optimism correction, clustered by site. Brier scores: baseline 0.118, full 0.116 at 24 months.