Peritoneal Recurrence Risk Calculator (SPACE-FLOT)

Gastro-oesophageal cancer — Fine-Gray competing risks model — Post-surgical follow-up


Predicted peritoneal recurrence risk

12 months
cumulative incidence
24 months
cumulative incidence
36 months
cumulative incidence
Predicted cumulative incidence of peritoneal recurrence
Patient curve (solid) vs. study cohort tertiles (dashed)
Timepoint Predicted CIF Cohort risk tier (at 24 m)
12 months
24 months
36 months
Clinical disclaimer: This calculator provides predicted cumulative incidence of peritoneal recurrence based on a competing-risks regression model (Fine-Gray) derived from a multicentre cohort of patients treated with perioperative FLOT chemotherapy and curative-intent surgery for gastro-oesophageal cancer. Predictions are probabilistic estimates and should be interpreted alongside clinical judgement. This tool does not constitute a recommendation for or against any specific treatment. The model has not been externally validated.
Model performance metrics
Model Optimism-corrected AUC at 24 m (95% CI) n (complete case)
Baseline (preoperative) 0.738 (0.723–0.778) 2,238
Full (post-surgical) 0.802 (0.791–0.835) 2,238
Internal validation: 1,000-bootstrap optimism correction, clustered by site. Brier scores: baseline 0.118, full 0.116 at 24 months.